Table 2 Estimated negative impact of measles parties and positive impact of vaccination campaigns during October 2018 to July 2019.

Column 2 shows the observed numbers of cases, reported as of 6 August 2019. Column 3 shows the estimated numbers of cases if there had been no measles parties. Columns 4 to 6 show the estimated total numbers of cases (fourth column), hospitalizations (fifth column), and individuals in intensive care unit (ICU) for different age groups (rows 3 to 6) and overall (last row), if there had been no vaccination campaigns. Columns 7 to 9 show the estimated numbers of cases, hospitalizations, and ICU cases averted by the vaccination campaigns. Numbers are the median (IQRs) of 10,000 simulations. See table S2 for the median and 95% CIs of the simulated estimates.

Age
group
No. of cases
reported
No. of cases,
if no measles
parties
No. if no vaccination campaignsNo. averted by vaccination campaigns
CasesHospitalizationsICU casesCasesHospitalizationsICU cases
<110026 (2–81)1302
(1062–1358)
97 (79–101)20 (16–21)1202
(962–1258)
89 (72–94)18 (15–19)
1–427562 (5–193)3914
(3596–4000)
291 (267–297)60 (55–62)3639
(3321–3725)
271 (247–277)56 (51–57)
5–1713826 (1–110)1412
(897–1534)
105 (67–114)22 (14–24)1274
(759–1396)
95 (56–104)20 (12–21)
18+12929 (2–102)1141
(907–1218)
85 (67–91)18 (14–19)1012
(778–1089)
75 (58–81)16 (12–17)
All642152 (12–492)7810
(6480–8089)
581 (482–601)120 (100–124)7168
(5838–7447)
533 (434–554)110 (90–115)