Table 3 Results of our model based on different choices of π.

ScenarioReference
case
Additional % infected on the Wuhan
departure day
π = 0π = 5%π = 10%π = 20%
α̂1.97
(1.75, 2.28)
1.93
(1.72, 2.22)
1.89
(1.69, 2.12)
1.81
(1.66, 2.02)
λ̂0.11
(0.1, 0.12)
0.11
(0.1, 0.12)
0.11
(0.11, 0.12)
0.12
(0.11, 0.13)
Mean8.29
(7.67, 8.9)
8.01
(7.45, 8.61)
7.75
(7.23, 8.31)
7.32
(6.85, 7.8)
5%2.07
(1.6, 2.69)
1.93
(1.5, 2.52)
1.81
(1.42, 2.3)
1.60
(1.29, 2)
25%4.97
(4.25, 5.78)
4.73
(4.07, 5.49)
4.51
(3.92, 5.19)
4.14
(3.66, 4.7)
Median7.76
(7.02, 8.53)
7.47
(6.78, 8.18)
7.19
(6.55, 7.9)
6.73
(6.19, 7.3)
75%11.04
(10.34, 11.66)
10.7
(10.07, 11.35)
10.38
(9.78, 10.98)
9.86
(9.3, 10.4)
90%14.28
(13.64, 14.9)
13.92
(13.32, 14.57)
13.59
(12.99, 14.17)
13.04
(12.44, 13.59)
95%16.32
(15.62, 17.04)
15.95
(15.3, 16.65)
15.62
(14.91, 16.26)
15.07
(14.38, 15.72)
99%20.31
(19.15, 21.47)
19.94
(18.87, 20.98)
19.62
(18.52, 20.62)
19.1
(17.98, 20.11)
99.9%24.95
(23.04, 26.81)
24.6
(22.78, 26.31)
24.33
(22.65, 26.03)
23.89
(22.05, 25.43)
−Log
likelihood
2843.00
(2796.63,
2889.72)
2843.21
(2799.86,
2891.41)
2843.57
(2795.53,
2887.36)
2844.96
(2796.74,
2890.19)