Table 3 Results of our model based on different choices of π.

 Scenario Referencecase Additional % infected on the Wuhandeparture day π = 0 π = 5% π = 10% π = 20% α̂ 1.97(1.75, 2.28) 1.93(1.72, 2.22) 1.89(1.69, 2.12) 1.81(1.66, 2.02) λ̂ 0.11(0.1, 0.12) 0.11(0.1, 0.12) 0.11(0.11, 0.12) 0.12(0.11, 0.13) Mean 8.29(7.67, 8.9) 8.01(7.45, 8.61) 7.75(7.23, 8.31) 7.32(6.85, 7.8) 5% 2.07(1.6, 2.69) 1.93(1.5, 2.52) 1.81(1.42, 2.3) 1.60(1.29, 2) 25% 4.97(4.25, 5.78) 4.73(4.07, 5.49) 4.51(3.92, 5.19) 4.14(3.66, 4.7) Median 7.76(7.02, 8.53) 7.47(6.78, 8.18) 7.19(6.55, 7.9) 6.73(6.19, 7.3) 75% 11.04(10.34, 11.66) 10.7(10.07, 11.35) 10.38(9.78, 10.98) 9.86(9.3, 10.4) 90% 14.28(13.64, 14.9) 13.92(13.32, 14.57) 13.59(12.99, 14.17) 13.04(12.44, 13.59) 95% 16.32(15.62, 17.04) 15.95(15.3, 16.65) 15.62(14.91, 16.26) 15.07(14.38, 15.72) 99% 20.31(19.15, 21.47) 19.94(18.87, 20.98) 19.62(18.52, 20.62) 19.1(17.98, 20.11) 99.9% 24.95(23.04, 26.81) 24.6(22.78, 26.31) 24.33(22.65, 26.03) 23.89(22.05, 25.43) −Loglikelihood 2843.00(2796.63,2889.72) 2843.21(2799.86,2891.41) 2843.57(2795.53,2887.36) 2844.96(2796.74,2890.19)